Slightly better solar cycle?

According to the updated solar data, it looks like this solar cycle is very slightly better than the last cycle. What does this mean? Expect the next solar cycle to be very similar to the last one.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png .

How big will the next sunspot peak be?

One thing is certain, experts do not agree! 

In the last few days we have seen quite high solar flux and sunspot numbers for this part of the cycle. Most predictors suggest the next peak will be very similar to the last one.  It could be smaller, but it could be much bigger. Only time will tell.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25 .

The next solar peak

Jay, W5OLF has sent me an article on the next solar peak suggesting it could be good. The last forecast I saw suggested it could be similar to the last one. Sadly, I think it is too early to tell.

See https://www.unknowncountry.com/headline-news/termination-events-may-mark-the-end-and-the-beginning-of-solar-cycles/ .

Have we past the solar minimum?

Although the recent days have been spotless yet again, the solar flux seems to be above 70 pretty consistently. Are we now on the start of the slow climb to the next solar maximum or is this just a blip? It will be some months before we can be certain.

Solar forecasts

As you know, I keep an eye on the solar data. According to a piece in Southgate News, the next solar peak is expected around July 2025 and it is expected to be around the same level as the last cycle, so no Maunder minimum as some had been saying.

The next solar minimum is expected around next April. These latter figures contradict the figures I saw for forecasts produced by NOAA/NASA which predicted a later minimum.

See http://southgatearc.org/news/2019/december/two-solar-cycle-25-sunspots-appear.htm

Solar cycle 25 start

"While smaller spots with the correct polarity alignment of cycle 25 regions have been observed at high latitude locations as early as 2016, this overview will only include spots large enough to have been visible at a 1K resolution. In the case of reversed polarity cycle 24 regions, those that are not at a sufficiently high latitude (ie. 30 degrees or more), are considered most likely to belong to cycle 24 and will not be included in this list until closer to the actual solar cycle minimum (likely to be sometime between August 2018 and February 2019)."

Notice the last few words. This was copied from http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html .

Slowly declining solar conditions

September was a bit of a surprise, with quite respectable solar flux and sunspots. Nonetheless, on average we are still very much on the downside of the solar cycle with some years before we hit the bottom.

It is some time since I last checked the predictions for the next peak, but they were disappointing, so we may not see much of a peak. Always remember these are averages and the odd day may be much better. The trouble is many desert the higher bands assuming they are no good, so DX gets missed.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .
See also http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html.

Autumn HF conditions?

Although we are now well in to autumn, apart from South Americans by what I assume is TEP, I have not (yet) seen a great improvement in HF conditions.

We are fighting a downwards solar cycle trend and, as yet, I have still to get any USA spots on 10m JT65. Conditions may still improve. The next few months are likely to be the best we are going to see for a very long time on 10m and conditions this autumn are well down on the last few years.

Last chances? It is now unlikely I'll see great 10m conditions ever again in my lifetime. That is a sobering thought. There are many in my agegroup who remember great HF conditions in past solar peaks.

QRP and low sunspot activity

There is some debate over QRP and declining solar activity. Certainly more power helps when conditions are marginal although often if a path is open then a few watts are fine for a QSO. At present, I use 5W maximum and most times 2W yet still seem to get spotted around the world on WSPR and JT 2-way modes. As I have mentioned before, even at the rock bottom of earlier solar cycles I have still worked LU (over 11000km) on QRP SSB on 10m with very modest wire antennas. No, more power may help with a pile-up but even QRP is fine if the band is open. Of course, summertime Es generally needs only QRP. I have worked Es DX on 6m with QRP and a helical whip on the FT817. Es can be great fun.

Solar decline

There is little doubt now that we have passed the solar peak and we are now on the way to the minimum. This is still years away mind you. This graph (located at http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png) illustrates this well. As I said before, it is too early to say just how poor HF conditions will get.

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

No new solar maximum?

The latest summary for May 2013 on the Solar Terrestrial Activity Report at http://www.solen.info/solar/ shows that the (smoothed) international sunspot number (SIDC) reached 78.7 in May, some way below the last peak 96.7 back in Nov 2011. There is still a chance that another few months could raise the smoothed sunspot numbers above the Nov 2011 peak. Whatever, if these numbers remain at similar levels into the autumn we will have decent conditions on the higher HF bands.

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

 

Solar flare and cycle 24

The BBC website has news of the solar flare on Monday. See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22525233 .  As we are around the peak of solar cycle 24 - the jury is still out on whether or not we will have a second peak in the cycle larger than the one of Nov 2011 - such flares can be expected. They can occur at any time though. 

Of course the media, including the BBC, likes to "hype up" the dangers of extreme flares: talk of wiping out satellites and power grids etc. All these things can occur, but we have better ways of protecting from these risks and with some advanced warning the dangers of black-outs can be reduced.

In many ways, I prefer the quieter years in the sunspot cycle: working DX with QRP is more challenging on the higher HF bands and, as I mentioned a week ago, WSPR will really be useful in winkling out the openings that fleetingly may occur.

Solar activity - a second peak?

Looking at the sunspot and solar flux levels in the last month, it looks like we are seeing evidence of a second peak to cycle 24.  Whether it exceeds the peak of November 2011 remains to be seen.  As the slide down from the peak(s) is slower than the rise towards the peak(s), we can expect reasonable HF conditions for several more years yet before we return to the quiet years when activity on 12 and 10m is very low indeed.

Long-term Solar Outlook - downwards!

Chris N7ZWY has put an interesting graph on his website showing his predictions for the future solar cycle progression. His graph shows the solar cycle progressions since the 17th century and Chris's predictions for the future. No-one can be certain of the accuracy of predictions, but as time goes by we are gathering more detailed understanding. I have little doubt Chris is broadly right.

Chris says:

"The average sunspot count for October was 61.4, higher than last month and no indication of the final decline which should bottom out around 2017 or 2018, which will then be followed by two more similarly low sunspot cycles and then a third with almost no activity during a phase reversal."

See http://www.home.earthlink.net/~christrask/Solar%20Activity%201600-2100.pdf

Now, looking at the plot it is highly likely that the sunspot peaks for the next 40-50 years will be weak ones, or even non-existent. The next few years are likely to see the end of the good times on the higher HF bands. Those of us who were around in the 1950s and 1960s didn't know just how lucky we were. Many newcomers to the hobby at that time worked all over the world with 5-10W of CW and AM with S9 signals.